McCain Leads in Polls….Or Paul Gains on Giuliani?
You pick the title! I think the big story in the most recent poll is that of Representative Ron Paul gaining ground on Rudy Giuliani.
Gallup released tracking data from national daily polls conducted Jan. 22-24 that show John McCain is bolstering his front-runner status among Republicans. He has an 11 percent lead over Mike Huckabee, his closest challenger. Hillary Rodham Clinton has an even more substantial lead in the Democratic race. Her current 16 percentage point lead over Barack Obama (31 percent) is representative of her recent strength in national polling. And, her 47 percent is nearly 4 times the support trailing Democrat John Edwards (12 percent) can muster.
Voters tend towards the familiar once they start getting serious about voting, and who is more familiar than John McCain? Yes Rudy was brilliant in moments that mattered, and bless him for being there and reacting the way that he did, but to maintain that one, amazing but singular moment over a two year campaign would have been amazing.
So, then you have representative Ron Paul. A long shot, a Jesse Jackson, a statement maker that didn’t have a shot before he had even begun. However, this doesn’t matter to a campaign that is more about the message than the candidate, and this is paying off. Paul might not overtake Giuliani in Florida, but he will soon be close, he will have money to spend, and he will be in a position to make his point. Spending needs to be cut back.
Therefore, statistically and historically it makes sense that McCain has made great strides in the polls, media stories aside, but the longshot story is that of Representative Ron Paul. Dr. No!
